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This report reviews the latest scientific evidence and other scholarly literature on the climate implications of new oil and gas extraction projects.

Report

2025

The Climate Implications of New Oil and Gas Fields in the UK

– An overview of the evidence

This is IISD's response to the UK consultation on the future of the North Sea, including the policy of ending new oil and gas licensing.

Briefing

2025

Response to DESNZ Consultation on the Future of the North Sea

This report provides policy-makers with tools to mitigate the legal risks of investor–state arbitration when designing oil and gas phase-out policies.

Report

2025

A Legally Sound Oil and Gas Phase-out

This is IISD’s response to the UK consultation on how to change its regulations for environmental impact assessments of offshore oil and gas fields, to account for the emissions that occur when the oil or gas are eventually consumed.

Briefing

2025

Response to DESNZ Consultation on Scope 3 Emissions Guidance

This brief proposes how to estimate the price tag for phasing out fossil fuels, to help inform both governments' policy efforts and discussions on international climate finance. 

Briefing

2024

Costing A Fossil Fuel Phaseout

This briefing provides an introduction to the economic risks of fossil fuels, how governments can manage them, and what an internationally fair approach could look like. 

Briefing

2024

Overcoming Oil Dependence

This report proposes policy solutions for delivering a fast, fair, and orderly phase-out of oil and gas production. 


Report

2024

Transitioning Away From Oil and Gas

A production phase-out primer

Methodology and data used in the Civil Society Equity Review 2023, for calculating equitable timelines for phasing out fossil fuel extraction, and the amounts of financial resources required to enable the phaseout. 

Report

2024

Methodology Appendix

for "An Equitable Phase Out of Fossil Fuel Extraction"

The article argues that the UK has an opportunity to take a leading role in making fossil fuels socially and politically unacceptable, setting an example for other nations in tackling climate change. 

Article/Op-ed

2024

The world no longer needs new fossil fuels

The UK could lead the way in making them taboo

This blog summarises our paper in Science proposing an international norm against new fossil fuel projects.

Blog

2024

No New Fossil Fuel Projects

The logical first step in a transition to clean energy

This paper demonstrates that achieving the Paris goals implies no new fossil fuel projects should be built. It proposes building an international norm against new fossil projects, as a powerful next step in climate policy.

Peer-reviewed article

2024

No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need

This report proposes science and equity-based dates by which different countries should end coal, oil and gas extraction to limit warming to 1.5°C, the amounts of international support needed to make this possible, and which countries should provide this support. 

Report

2023

An Equitable Phaseout Of Fossil Fuel Extraction

Towards a reference framework for a fair and rapid global phaseout

This paper identifies a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, including the urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out.

Peer-reviewed article

2023

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023

This report finds that petrostates' future government revenues are in jeopardy due to the global energy transition. It proposes policy measures these governments can take to reduce their risks. 

Report

2023

Petrostates of Decline

This chapter outlines some of the major issues related to global energy transformation, setting the scene for the subsequent chapter on energy transition in low- and middle-income countries.

Report

2023

The Emissions Gap Report 2023

This article reflects on and contextualises a new study finding that decarbonizing US electricity generation will create jobs, but with uneven distribution among states, industrial sectors and skill needs. 

Article/Op-ed

2023

How energy transition affects jobs

This article examines the way IPCC scenarios phase out coal much faster than oil and gas, and the challenges this creates for coal-dependent economies, especially in the Global South. 

Article/Op-ed

2023

How quickly does the world need to 'phase down' all fossil fuels?

In IPCC pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C, global coal power generation declines very rapidly. This paper assesses the challenges this would create, and proposes a fairer balance between coal, oil and gas phaseout. 

Peer-reviewed article

2023

Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out

Its role in mitigation pathways

This report highlights the implications of 1.5°C scenarios for fossil fuel phaseout and the scale-up to renewables, barriers to transitions and solutions to navigate the current energy crisis while maintaining climate ambition. 

Report

2022

Navigating Energy Transitions

Mapping the road to 1.5°C

This article examines how the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) could impede the implementation of climate pledges, which fossil fuel investors might challenge as violations of their investment protections. 

Article/Op-ed

2022

How the Energy Charter Treaty risks undermining the outcomes of COP 26

The first bottom-up assessment of committed CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-producing infrastructure, finding that existing fields and mines contain enough oil, gas and coal to significantly exceed 1.5°C carbon budgets. 

Peer-reviewed article

2022

Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5°C

This blog summarises research commissioned from the Tyndall Centre at Manchester University, on phaseout pathways for fossil fuel production within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, differentiating countries according to equity principles.

Blog

2022

Countries Must Phase Out Oil and Gas Production

—and Quickly

My expert witness statement in Jeremy Cox et al’s case against the Oil & Gas Authority’s ‘Maximising Economic Recovery’ strategy. It focuses on the low taxes oil companies pay, and the impacts of that for the economy and for climate change.

Expert witness testimony

2021

Economic impacts of UK oil and gas fiscal system

This report tracks the discrepancy between governments' planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. 

Report

2021

The Production Gap Report 2021

This article argues that allowing new oil and gas projects undermines the UK's credibility as host of the COP26 climate summit and weakens its leadership on climate action. 

Article/Op-ed

2021

How can Britain commit to net zero

- and still drill for millions more barrels of oil?

This briefing proposes how climate change and development advocates can engage with national oil companies, the "hidden half" of the global oil industry. 

Briefing

2021

National Oil Companies and Climate Change

Insights for advocates

This report examines the role of gas in the Global South. It assesses public finance flows, risks from gas development, the status of alternatives to gas, and how to overcome the challenges of transition. It has detailed case studies of Argentina, Egypt, and India.

Report

2021

Step Off the Gas

International public finance, natural gas, and clean alternatives in the Global South

This briefing aims to help investors and others interpret and assess the feasibility of the role of CDR in companies' climate plans. 

Briefing

2021

Net Expectations

Assessing the role of carbon dioxide removal in companies' climate plans

This paper explores how to equitably manage the social dimensions of a rapid transition away from fossil fuel extraction. 

Peer-reviewed article

2020

Equity, climate justice and fossil fuel extraction

Principles for a managed phase out

This chapter examines the past, present and possible futures of OPEC's engagement with the issue of climate change. 

Book chapter

2020

What Role for OPEC in the last Generation of Oil?

This blog, summarising my chapter published in a book on OPEC, argues that we need to think about OPEC less simplistically, and suggests a role for OPEC in tackling climate change by restricting its supply of oil.

Article/Op-ed

2020

What role for OPEC in the last generation of oil? (Blog)

This report examines the climate impact of North Sea oil and gas extraction, and shows the way to a job-creating energy transition. 

Report

2019

Sea Change

Climate emergency, jobs and managing the phase-out of UK oil and gas extraction

My written evidence to the UK Environmental Audit Committee’s hearing into UK Export Finance (UKEF). It recommends that UKEF end its financing of long-lived fossil fuel projects. 

Expert witness testimony

2019

Public finance role in the energy transition

This blog critiques Shell’s climate plan, which would actually lead to increasing emissions, because the company’s targets for reducing carbon intensity are outweighed by its plans to increase the amount it produces.

Blog

2018

Shell Emissions Still Going Up

Despite Accounting Device

This speech I gave at a conference in Mozambique remembers three heroes who stood up to the oil industry: Ida Tarbell, Mohammed Mosaddegh and Ken Saro-Wiwa.

Blog

2018

Of Memory and Power

This paper examines the potential impacts of energy transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs, and how to prioritize which fossil resources can still be extracted. 

Peer-reviewed article

2018

Whose carbon is burnable?

Equity considerations in the allocation of a 'right to extract'

This article revisits the debates on the oil motive for the Iraq War. It examines US/UK strategic objectives, how the governments planned to achieve them and how they decided to talk about them in public. 


Peer-reviewed article

2018

No blood for oil, revisited

The strategic role of oil in the 2003 Iraq War

This blog critiques Shell’s Energy Transition Plan, and argues that to align with the Paris goals, Shell should stop opening new oil and gas fields.

Blog

2018

Shell on Earth

Why Shell Fails on Climate

This report assesses the International Energy Agency as a guide to decisions on energy policies and investments, and argues that the IEA should align its advice with the Paris goals on climate change. 

Report

2018

Off Track

The IEA and climate change

This blog critiques Shell’s new ‘Sky’ scenario and laments the demise of Shell’s once world-leading scenarios team.

Blog

2018

Shell Game

What Shell Gets Wrong in Its New Climate Report

My opening statement, presented at the Irish parliament’s inquiry into the proposed Petroleum Bill. It makes the case that meeting Ireland’s climate goals requires ending the licensing of new oil and gas fields, critiques the idea of gas as a ‘transition fuel’ and shows why restricting fossil fuel supply is an effective policy. 

Expert witness testimony

2018

Climate limits and fossil fuel production

This blog critiques the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario, and calls on the IEA to publish a truly Paris-aligned scenario instead.

Blog

2018

Explainer: IEA Scenarios and the Paris Goals

This report explores the track record of oil company forecasts of the future of energy systems, the assumptions built into the forecasts, and the consequences for investments and for climate change. 


Report

2017

Forecasting Failure

Why investors should treat oil company energy forecasts with caution

This briefing assesses how decarbonisation of the energy system will affect the valuation of Saudi Aramco in its Initial Public Offering. 

Briefing

2017

Overheated Expectations

Valuing Saudi Aramco's IPO in light of climate change

This report explores the worsening economic and financial case for investment in Canada's tar sands, and the impact of limits to export infrastructure, lower oil prices and diminishing political and public support. 

Report

2016

Flawed Fundamentals

Shell's and BP's stalled tar sands ambitions

This article assesses the potential legality of the UK's pursuit of economic change in Iraq, especially in relation to oil. 

Article/Op-ed

2016

Tony Blair could face prosecution yet

Focus on oil and follow the money

This report assesses the lifetime emissions from "developed reserves" of fossil fuels in existing fields and mines, and argues for an end to opening new fields and mines. 

Report

2016

The Sky's Limit

The Paris climate goals and a managed decline of fossil fuel production

This article asks why the Chilcot Report into the UK's role in the Iraq War did not pay more attention to oil issues. 

Article/Op-ed

2016

Chilcot's blind spot

Iraq War report buries oil evidence

This report examines the climate impact of the planned quadrupling of crude-by-rail terminal capacity in Oregon and Washington. 

Report

2015

Tracking Emissions

The climate impact of the proposed crude-by-rail terminals in the Pacific Northwest

This article discusses US oil objectives in Iraq, the extent to which they were achieved, the present status and what might come next. 


Article/Op-ed

2012

How the U.S. paved the way for Big Oil's rise - and possible fall - in Iraq

My expert witness statement in Friends of the Earth’s legal case against UK Export Finance support for Total’s Mozambique LNG project. It focuses on how to assess climate impact of a fossil fuel project, and the role of gas in the energy transition.

Expert witness testimony

2011

Total's Mozambique LNG project

Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions

Drawing on thousands of unreleased government documents and dozens of interviews with key Iraq and foreign players, this book tells the story of the struggles over the future of oil during the occupation of Iraq. 

Book

2011

Fuel on the Fire

Oil and politics in occupied Iraq

This commentary summarises and discusses my report revealing how BP and the Iraqi government secretly renegotiated the contract for the Rumaila field, after an apparently transparent auction, and how this skewed the benefits in favour of BP.

Article/Op-ed

2011

From glass box to smoke-filled room - How Rumaila contract was renegotiated

This report reveals how BP and the Iraqi government secretly renegotiated the contract for the Rumaila field, after an apparently transparent auction, and how this skewed the benefits in favour of BP.

Report

2011

From Glass Box to Smoke Filled Room

How BP secretly renegotiated its Iraqi oil contract, and how Iraqis will pay the price

This report analyses the the Kashagan oilfield in Kazakhstan, asking whether the country is getting a fair deal from the oil companies.

Report

2007

Hellfire Economics

Multinational companies and the contract dispute over Kashagan

This paper describes and illustrates how corporations are imposing a new era of resource colonialism by means of investment agreements to protect their profits from public-interest regulation. 

Report

2006

Turbo-Charging Investor Sovereignty

Investment Agreements and Corporate Colonialism

Peer-reviewed article

2006

Production sharing agreements

Mortgaging Iraq's oil wealth

This report reveals oil companies' and US/UK governments' desired future arrangements for Iraq's oilfields, and what they would cost Iraqis. 

Report

2005

Crude Designs

The rip-off of Iraq's oil wealth

The article reports on the achievements of the new oilworkers' trade union in occupied Iraq.

Article/Op-ed

2005

Iraq's other resistance

A book characterising what could be expected from BP’s proposed Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipelines system, based on the experience of BP projects in the UK, US and Colombia.

Report

2002

Some Common Concerns

Imagining BP's Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey Pipeline System

© 2025 By Greg Muttitt.
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