In the Global Stocktake decision of 2023, governments agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action this decade. This paper examines how countries’ circumstances shape their readiness to implement equitable fossil fuel transitions. We analyse quantitative patterns of fossil fuel dependence, drawing out policy implications, including the challenges and opportunities in complex transitions.

The paper examines three types of transitions:
• Energy transitions, from fossil fuels to cleaner energy systems (all countries);
• Energy-economy transitions, from fossil-fuelled industry to alternative economic development and employment drivers (some countries, especially coal consumers);
• Economic transitions, from dependence on fossil revenues and exports to diversified economies (some countries, especially oil and gas exporters).

For each, it assesses how countries' circumstances differ.

Authors: Greg Muttitt and Harald Winkler

Published by: University of Cape Town